Quinnipiac has McCain ahead in two must win states:

by George Dienhart

Quinnipiac FLORIDA - McCain 45, Obama 41
Quinnipiac OHIO - McCain 44, Obama 40.

Good news for the McCain camp.

How Georgia fixes it's test scores

by George Dienhart

Hey Georgia- are your school test scores to low (we all know the answer to that)? The State of Georgia has a novel new approach to the problem. Throw out the scores! To call this shameful does not even begin to qualify this action.

The excuses are there, but upon looking at state School Superintendent Kathy Cox has citied as the reason for failure, the blame should be placed squarely on the states shoulders. What happened? Let us look at the corresponding numbers and excuses.

Nineteen percent of students failed the math portion of the test. Department Spokeswoman Dana Tufig provided the AJC this excuse: "Math is an area where Georgia students have struggled for a long time. This isn't out of line with what we've seen." Okay- Math performance has always been sub-par. It is now an acceptable Georgia tradition. It is acceptable because it has always been that way. Seems to me like we a paving the path to hell with lowered expectations.

That 19% number probably horrifies people in outside of Georgia. In many states, heads would roll for this kind of performance. However, in Georgia, this was seen as a success. What do we see as failure? Monday, School Superintendent Kathy Cox announced that 70 to 80 percent seventh-graders had failed the social studies exam and about 40 percent of Georgia's 124,000 eighth-graders failed in math. I guess that does make the overall math scores look god in comparison. So how do fix this in Georgia? Well first, we look for an excuse. For math, Tofig provided an excuse. “The math test is very well aligned with the curriculum.  It is a new test, testing a brand new curriculum that's more rigorous." Therefore, if the testing is more rigorous, that means that schools were not doing their job in past years, because the math scores were much higher. It also means that schools were not prepared to teach the new curriculum this year. If they were, the test scores would have been better.

How does the state address the embarrassingly low Social Studies scores? They were so bad that even Kathy Cox could not come up with an adequate excuse. To wit, "I think we got in a hurry and we tried to find a middle ground for what this middle-school classroom should look like," she said. "We put too much in the curriculum for teachers to teach and didn't get specific enough on what they had to teach." In other words, it was the states fault for rolling out a curriculum which Cox herself referred to as “vague”

The answers to our problems in Georgia do not lie in excuses or another change in curriculum. The solution is provided in two parts. The first is teacher accountability. If teachers are not capable of teaching the curriculum offered by the state, them they should not be teaching. The union needs to allow the state to weed out the massive amount of bad teachers in Georgia. This, obviously, helps the students. It also helps the good teachers who are left behind. They would no longer have to cover the inadequacies of their co-workers.

The second answer is provided by issuing school vouchers. A voucher that takes ½ of the tax dollars meant to educate each student and allocates it to the school of the family’s choice would help everyone. For my own benefit, we will keep the numbers simple. Let’s say a school district has ten thousand students, each receiving eight thousand dollars. That is an 80 million dollar pot of cash. Now let us say two thousand students opt out. That leaves 74 million dollars for public education- liberals are screaming about an eight million dollar loss right about now. The magic lies in the math. The average amount of money available to spend for each public school child has risen from eight thousand dollars to nine thousand dollars. That is about an extra twenty five thousand dollars to spend on an average sized elementary school class. It could go for equipment, textbooks, or even teacher salaries. Vouchers would be as good for public schools as they would private schools.

Now the teacher’s union cronies can speak up- “That means fewer jobs for teachers!” No, however, it may mean fewer union jobs for teachers. This is a complaint born out of the self-interest of the unions. Competition means more private and parochial schools, which favor smaller class sizes. That means more jobs for teachers.

Our children should be the utmost importance, especially to educators. Simply ignoring our problems is not helping our children.

Democrat Delegate rundown

by George Dienhart
Yesterday I did a quick delegate breakdown for the Democrats. Today, we will dive into the numbers a little deeper, including yesterday’s results. I’ll also cover why this is a grim day not only for Hillary, but also for Obama. First, yesterdays results.

If Hillary is going to continue to spin the popular vote and late season surge as reasons she is the best choice, she should be announcing herself as the overall victor of yesterdays primaries. When both states are combined, she won overwhelmingly- 13 percentage points, and 155 thousand votes. That’s a big turnout for Hillary, but it was only one day. A day that is extremely late in the primary process. Here’s a review of the overall delegate count.

Here, we notice a slight shift in the results, dependant on how you count. Under the DNC’s present rules, Obama is ahead in every category, though not decisively. The magic (or depending on who you ask, witchcraft) occurs when you include the presently disenfranchised Florida and Michigan voters, there is slight gain for Hillary. When you increase the number of delegates needed to clinch to the 2209 delegates that the Clinton Campaign frequently cites, Hillary is nearly back in the hunt. Notice that Obama’s delegate lead drops from 183 to 68 under the reformulation. How is this significant?

There are three states/territories left. Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. All three are projected to go to Hillary. I project that Hillary gets 35 out of 55 in Puerto Rico. She’ll get 11 out of 16 in Montana and 10 out of 15 in South Dakota. That gives 2029 to Obama’s 2071. Both candidates are still short of the necessary delegates whether you count Florida and Michigan or not. That leaves the decision in the 167 super delegates that remain uncommitted. This nomination now depends on who cuts them a better deal…

Ted Kennedy update

By George Dienhart       

The AP is reporting that Sen. Ted Kennedy has a Brain Tumor.

Delegate Math

by George Dienhart

Generally, an election will be won by whoever receives more votes. Sure, there are complications sometime- hanging chads and electoral colleges, but most of the time the winner of the popular vote wins the election. In light of that, I would like you to review some numbers. Four numbers, to be exact. The first two are the results of the Democratic primaries, under the rules that are now in place:
Obama 16,071,846

Clinton 15,492,344.

That is Obama 50.91% to Clinton 49.09%. That is a pretty close election. Tantalizingly close for Hillary. So close that she wants to change the rules. Changing the rules is an old Clinton tactic- if you do not like the way something works, change the circumstances of the outcome. When the Democratic National Committee excluded Michigan and Florida, they stumbled into a minefield. Here is our second set of numbers. This is how the Clinton campaign is counting:

Clinton 16,691,639

Obama 16,648,060

That puts Hillary ahead 50.06% to 49.94% That is even closer, but it is a result that super delegates will be hearing repeatedly. They will be told that this means Hillary is the people’s choice, and as such, they should cast their lot in with her. To a floundering Hillary, this slimmest of leads provides a lifeline. The problem with a lifeline is, it is dependant on someone catching it and hauling you in. That means the ball is back in the super delegate court- and they have been treating that lifeline like a spent rod of uranium. It has been strictly hands off for some time now.

How bad are things at Camp Clinton? My informal count puts Obama ahead 28-6 this week. Super Delegates continue to line up behind Obama, forsaking “the peoples choice” Hillary. The news for Hillary gets worse- even if you count Florida and Michigan she is still behind in delegates 1995 to 1912. Even when using Hillary’s math, this still leaves her almost 300 delegates short of the nomination.

This made me think “Where are Hillary’s Super Delegate strengths?” The DNC breaks the Super Delegates into several categories. Hillary is ahead in only one- Distinguished Party Leaders. You could call this one “friends of Bill”. She leads 9-6, (with 6 votes uncommitted). Obama leads in Governors 14-11 (6), Senators 20-13 (15), Reps 93-81 (50) and Party officials 149 to 148 (100).  As you can while she is behind in nearly every category, there is room in each category for her to catch up- but not enough for her to make up the ground she needs over all. If the delegates continue to break as they have this week, Obama will get about 125 of the remaining 176. This is not enough to seize the nomination if you include the Florida and Michigan votes. Even if Hillary sweeps the remaining super delegates, wins the states she is forecast to win, and we continue to include Florida and Michigan, she still comes up short- as does Obama.

This is the silver lining for Hillary, and the minefield for the DNC. The best she can hope for is a brokered convention. If memory serves right, no one is bound to any kind of commitment after the first vote in this situation. As usual, what is good for the Clintons is bad for everyone else. That is unless you are a McCain fan…

 

 

 

 

 

Red Meat Translation of Obama advice to GOP

by George Dienhart

The Michelle Obama Damage control train has left the station. To wit, a quote from Sen. Obama:

"The GOP, should I be the nominee- I think can say whatever they wanna say about me, my track record. I've been in public life for 20 years. ... If they think that they're gonna try to make Michelle an issue in this campaign, they should be careful. Because, that I find unacceptable. ... The notion that you start attacking my wife or my family - you know, Michelle is the most honest, the best person I know. She is one of the most caring people I know. She loves this country. And for them to try to distort or to play snippets of her remarks in ways that are unflattering to her I think is ... just low class. And I think they - most of the American people would think that as well. I would never think of going after somebody's spouse in a campaign. And for - especially for - people who purport to be promoters of family! values ... to start attacking my wife in a political campaign, I think ... is detestable."

I’ll break this down for you- here’s your Red Meat Translation:

"The GOP, should I be the nominee- I think can say whatever they wanna say about me (Can we start with your lack of detail on any policy?), my track record (Both years as a Senator? I say both because you’ve spent most of your ONE term campaigning for president). I've been in public life for 20 years (The same amount of time you’ve spent as a member of Rev. Wright’s church). ... If they think that they're gonna try to make Michelle an issue in this campaign (actually, she made herself an issue), they should be careful. Because (Microsoft’s paperclip reminds me not to start sentences with “because”- just some grammar help there, Barry), that I find unacceptable. ... The notion that you start attacking my wife or my family - you know, Michelle is the most honest, the best person I know. She is one of the most caring people I know. She loves this country (She loves’s it- she’s just not proud of it. Kind of like a cat that’s to dumb to learn to use a litter box. You know, you still love it, it just embarrasses you by taking a dump in your Father in Laws shoe while you are eating dinner.) And for them to try to distort or to play snippets of her remarks in ways that are unflattering to her I think is ... just low class (Okay- we’ll stick to big issues like her fund raiser with weather underground terrorists). And I think they - most of the American people would think that as well (Apparently, he’s never picked up a newspaper) . I would never think of going after somebody's spouse in a campaign (Not even Bill Clinton? Does he remember that Huffington Post Headline- Obama Slams Bill Clinton). And for - especially for - people who purport to be promoters of family values ... to start attacking my wife in a political campaign, I think ... is detestable."

 

 

MSNBC backs me up.

by George Dienhart

Ahead of the curve twice today- MSNBC reports that McCain will be relying on party money- just like I said earlier in the day (and wrote last night).

You can read the MSNBC piece here.

Kinda of like Jesus- only older. (Quote of the Day)

By George Dienhart

Okay, I added that last part after thinking of the Senator Saturday Night Live appearance. Georgia State GOP Chairwoman Sue Everhart said

"John McCain is kind of like Jesus Christ on the cross," Everhart said as she began the second day of the state GOP convention. "He never denounced God, either.”

There you have it.

Is President Bush an asset to the McCain camp?

by George Dienhart

I have to say that I suspected that this was going to be Obama’s strategy all along. In order to win, he needs a favorable contrast with someone. The McCain/Obama contrast doesn’t favor Obama, so he is left running against President Bush. I suspect this will be a good thing for Republicans, and President Bush. This is a high-risk strategy for Obama, and it will leave him constantly reacting to initiatives put forth by the McCain camp. In essence, this means that though he chooses to run against President Bush, he is in effect running against both men.

Liberals may be licking their chops at the premise of running against the Bush legacy, but in the end, it will not have the effect so desired by Democrats. President Bush is still extremely important for in the fundraising arena. Since fund-raising is perceived as a McCain weakness, the massive amount of money that President Bush can raise for the RNC is a formidable weapon- a weapon that can be deployed to John McCain’s benefit. Let’s look at some numbers…

So far, Obama has raised $234,745,081 to McCain’s $76,691,826. In the 2004 Election, President Bush raised 374,659,453. In 2000, he raised $193,866,253. Obama currently has about 51 million on hand to McCain’s 10 million. That’s a big head start for Obama, but we must look at some other facts first.

In the 2006 election cycle, an unpopular Bush authorized his PAC to spend 21 Million dollars supporting Republicans in various congressional elections. It is not inconceivable to have a sitting president raise this kind of cash- he’ll probably raise considerably more as most of his appearances will be made to raise money for others, with the money going into their PAC. This group would include the RNC. So far this cycle, the RNC has raised 123,452,533 to the DNC’s $72,828,785. That’s a 50 million dollar difference right there- and most of this money will go to the McCain campaign. The Senatorial and Congressional wings of the party have their own PACs, each generating 50+ million dollars each thus far. Therefore, our new presidential totals are Obama 123 million McCain 133 million. President Bush is most likely good for another 3-5 million dollars if he continues to keep a low profile.

Liberals are now screaming that I am making assumptions about the future, and where the RNC and DNC will spend their respective monies. I can justify that. As much as the far left screams that Republicans are stupid, they are not. The people holding the purse strings already know that the congressional elections are going to be a blood bath for Republicans. They also know that the best-spent political money is money spent on a winner. The Republican with the best chance to win is McCain. As, such, pro-McCain functions and groups will win the lions share of their money. Again- much of this RNC money will be made at events headlined by President Bush. This money will prove to be the “great equalizer” that the McCain campaign needs. The best part of this strategy is that President Bush will never need to be within 1000 miles of John McCain for it to work. Obama won’t reap a similar benefit from Bill Clinton. There is too much animosity between the Clinton’s and Obama now. Look for a relatively quiet election season from the Clintons.

I mentioned another thing that that George Bush will bring to the campaign. That thing would be Christian Conservatives. These are overwhelming pro-life voters. While they are not one issue voters, they do vote heavily on this one issue. The gift that President Bush has already given are his supreme court nominees. McCain has pledged nominees similar to Justice Roberts and Justice Alito. Christian Conservatives may say that they are not going to turn out now, but when they realize how tantalizingly close they are to overturning Roe v Wade, they will turn out in droves. 2 more justices will most likely retire under the next President. The choice for the Christian Right is between having justices that will throw this back to the states (where it belongs) and justices that will kill this issue for another 30 years.

With the Christian Right turning out for Obama and RNC fundraising equalizing the money situation, voters will turn to other issues and realize how far out of step Obama is with the rest of the country. Moderates will then gravitate toward McCain. This should give Republicans at leat one thing to look forward to, in what may turn out to be a brutal cycle.

Hero in action

by George Dienhart

Fox news has a photo essay of a Marine surviving a hail of gunfire. This man is on the front lines defending our way of life- thank you. See the photo’s here.

 

Funniest thing you will read today

by George Dienhart

Read this.

How much would you have paid to be sitting next to Bill?

What did Bloomberg say about McCain?

by George Dienhart

I think they might be right on Lieberman. There needs to be an (R) after his name though, and soon. It’s an interesting choice that strikes at Obama’s weakness with the white middle class. Here’s what Bloomberg said…

McCain's list would include former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, even with their frosty personal relations during the presidential campaign; Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty -- if he can avoid silly moments like talking on a radio show about his lack of a sex life with his wife -- and Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman. Lieberman, who ran as the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000, is now an Independent and a McCain supporter. If McCain thinks the social right of the Republican Party won't bolt even though Lieberman has been pro-choice on abortion and pro-gay rights, a good hunch is this is his personal preference.

Bloomberg agrees with Red Meat...

by George Dienhart

On Obama’s choice for VP. Remember- you read about Jim Webb here, first. Here’s what Bloomberg has to say…

For Obama, here's a good bet for a shortlist: former Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sam Nunn, a favorite of the party's conservative wing; current Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joe Biden; Reagan's former Navy secretary and now Virginia Democratic Senator Jim Webb; and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

This summer when people say that Bloomberg called it- tell them we called it first…

As if they don't have enough money...

by George Dienhart

Our “allies” in Saudi Arabia have denied the President’s appeal to lower crude oil process. From CNN:

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia’s leaders made clear Friday they see no reason to increase oil production until customers demand it, apparently rebuffing President Bush amid soaring U.S. gasoline prices.It was Bush’s second personal appeal this year to King Abdullah, head of the monarchy that rules this desert kingdom that is a longtime prime U.S. ally and home to the world’s largest oil reserves. But Saudi officials stuck to their position that they will only pump more oil into the system when asked to by buyers, something they say is not happening now, the president’s national security adviser told reporters. “Saudi Arabia does not have customers that are making requests for oil that they are not able to satisfy,” Stephen Hadley said on a day when oil prices topped $127 a barrel, continuing to set records. “What the Saudis wanted to tell us was we’re doing everything we can do ... to meet this problem, but it’s a complicated problem.”

No, what the Saudi’s want to tell is “We want more money” and “Yes, we forgot that little thing back in 90-91 where you came over here and saved us from being over run by Iraq.”

With friends like these…

Energy independence means doing away with these 2-bit dictators who seem to be more willing to be helped than to help. It means we need to be drilling in the Gulf and in ANWR. It means we need to start building John McCain’s 20 nuclear power plants immediately- and we also need the refineries he has promised. The change we need does not come with Obama’s smiles and platitudes- it comes in our energy policy, and McCain is the only one to announce one. If only he would drill in ANWR.

 

 

 

Coke bust in PTC

by George Dienhart

I have two messages to convey on this one- thanks to the PTC police for catching this guy. The second is what the hell is going on here?

In the last year PTC has suffered numerous school lockdowns, and drug related arrests. There was even a potential shooting at McIntosh High School. I think it might be time to start remembering these things when stating in the election booth. Most of us did not move here to close to crack dealers and tattoo parlors. The city leadership needs to get a handle on what’s going on within the cities borders.