By George Dienhart
The AP is reporting that Sen. Ted Kennedy has a Brain Tumor.
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Delegate Math
by George Dienhart
Generally, an election will be won by whoever receives more votes. Sure, there are complications sometime- hanging chads and electoral colleges, but most of the time the winner of the popular vote wins the election. In light of that, I would like you to review some numbers. Four numbers, to be exact. The first two are the results of the Democratic primaries, under the rules that are now in place:
Obama 16,071,846
That is Obama 50.91% to
Obama 16,648,060
That puts Hillary ahead 50.06% to 49.94% That is even closer, but it is a result that super delegates will be hearing repeatedly. They will be told that this means Hillary is the people’s choice, and as such, they should cast their lot in with her. To a floundering Hillary, this slimmest of leads provides a lifeline. The problem with a lifeline is, it is dependant on someone catching it and hauling you in. That means the ball is back in the super delegate court- and they have been treating that lifeline like a spent rod of uranium. It has been strictly hands off for some time now.
How bad are things at
This made me think “Where are Hillary’s Super Delegate strengths?” The DNC breaks the Super Delegates into several categories. Hillary is ahead in only one- Distinguished Party Leaders. You could call this one “friends of Bill”. She leads 9-6, (with 6 votes uncommitted). Obama leads in Governors 14-11 (6), Senators 20-13 (15), Reps 93-81 (50) and Party officials 149 to 148 (100). As you can while she is behind in nearly every category, there is room in each category for her to catch up- but not enough for her to make up the ground she needs over all. If the delegates continue to break as they have this week, Obama will get about 125 of the remaining 176. This is not enough to seize the nomination if you include the
This is the silver lining for Hillary, and the minefield for the DNC. The best she can hope for is a brokered convention. If memory serves right, no one is bound to any kind of commitment after the first vote in this situation. As usual, what is good for the
Monday, May 19, 2008
Red Meat Translation of Obama advice to GOP
by George Dienhart
The Michelle Obama Damage control train has left the station. To wit, a quote from Sen. Obama:
"The GOP, should I be the nominee- I think can say whatever they wanna say about me, my track record. I've been in public life for 20 years. ... If they think that they're gonna try to make Michelle an issue in this campaign, they should be careful. Because, that I find unacceptable. ... The notion that you start attacking my wife or my family - you know, Michelle is the most honest, the best person I know. She is one of the most caring people I know. She loves this country. And for them to try to distort or to play snippets of her remarks in ways that are unflattering to her I think is ... just low class. And I think they - most of the American people would think that as well. I would never think of going after somebody's spouse in a campaign. And for - especially for - people who purport to be promoters of family! values ... to start attacking my wife in a political campaign, I think ... is detestable."
I’ll break this down for you- here’s your Red Meat Translation:
"The GOP, should I be the nominee- I think can say whatever they wanna say about me (Can we start with your lack of detail on any policy?), my track record (Both years as a Senator? I say both because you’ve spent most of your ONE term campaigning for president). I've been in public life for 20 years (The same amount of time you’ve spent as a member of Rev. Wright’s church). ... If they think that they're gonna try to make Michelle an issue in this campaign (actually, she made herself an issue), they should be careful. Because (Microsoft’s paperclip reminds me not to start sentences with “because”- just some grammar help there, Barry), that I find unacceptable. ... The notion that you start attacking my wife or my family - you know, Michelle is the most honest, the best person I know. She is one of the most caring people I know. She loves this country (She loves’s it- she’s just not proud of it. Kind of like a cat that’s to dumb to learn to use a litter box. You know, you still love it, it just embarrasses you by taking a dump in your Father in Laws shoe while you are eating dinner.) And for them to try to distort or to play snippets of her remarks in ways that are unflattering to her I think is ... just low class (Okay- we’ll stick to big issues like her fund raiser with weather underground terrorists). And I think they - most of the American people would think that as well (Apparently, he’s never picked up a newspaper) . I would never think of going after somebody's spouse in a campaign (Not even Bill Clinton? Does he remember that Huffington Post Headline- Obama Slams Bill Clinton). And for - especially for - people who purport to be promoters of family values ... to start attacking my wife in a political campaign, I think ... is detestable."
MSNBC backs me up.
by George Dienhart
Ahead of the curve twice today- MSNBC reports that McCain will be relying on party money- just like I said earlier in the day (and wrote last night).
You can read the MSNBC piece here.
Kinda of like Jesus- only older. (Quote of the Day)
By George Dienhart
Okay, I added that last part after thinking of the Senator Saturday Night Live appearance. Georgia State GOP Chairwoman Sue Everhart said
"John McCain is kind of like Jesus Christ on the cross," Everhart said as she began the second day of the state GOP convention. "He never denounced God, either.”
There you have it.
Is President Bush an asset to the McCain camp?
by George Dienhart
I have to say that I suspected that this was going to be Obama’s strategy all along. In order to win, he needs a favorable contrast with someone. The McCain/Obama contrast doesn’t favor Obama, so he is left running against President Bush. I suspect this will be a good thing for Republicans, and President Bush. This is a high-risk strategy for Obama, and it will leave him constantly reacting to initiatives put forth by the McCain camp. In essence, this means that though he chooses to run against President Bush, he is in effect running against both men.
Liberals may be licking their chops at the premise of running against the Bush legacy, but in the end, it will not have the effect so desired by Democrats. President Bush is still extremely important 
for in the fundraising arena. Since fund-raising is perceived as a McCain weakness, the massive amount of money that President Bush can raise for the RNC is a formidable weapon- a weapon that can be deployed to John McCain’s benefit. Let’s look at some numbers…
So far, Obama has raised $234,745,081 to McCain’s $76,691,826. In the 2004 Election, President Bush raised 374,659,453. In 2000, he raised $193,866,253. Obama currently has about 51 million on hand to McCain’s 10 million. That’s a big head start for Obama, but we must look at some other facts first.
In the 2006 election cycle, an unpopular Bush authorized his PAC to spend 21 Million dollars supporting Republicans in various congressional elections. It is not inconceivable to have a sitting president raise this kind of cash- he’ll probably raise considerably more as most of his appearances will be made to raise money for others, with the money going into their
Liberals are now screaming that I am making assumptions about the future, and where the RNC and DNC will spend their respective monies. I can justify that. As much as the far left screams that Republicans are stupid, they are not. The people holding the purse strings already know that the congressional elections are going to be a blood bath for Republicans. They also know that the best-spent political money is money spent on a winner. The Republican with the best chance to win is McCain. As, such, pro-McCain functions and groups will win the lions share of their money. Again- much of this RNC money will be made at events headlined by President Bush. This money will prove to be the “great equalizer” that the McCain campaign needs. The best part of this strategy is that President Bush will never need to be within 1000 miles of John McCain for it to work. Obama won’t reap a similar benefit from Bill Clinton. There is too much animosity between the Clinton’s and Obama now. Look for a relatively quiet election season from the
I mentioned another thing that that George Bush will bring to the campaign. That thing would be Christian Conservatives. These are overwhelming pro-life voters. While they are not one issue voters, they do vote heavily on this one issue. The gift that President Bush has already given are his supreme court nominees. McCain has pledged nominees similar to Justice Roberts and Justice Alito. Christian Conservatives may say that they are not going to turn out now, but when they realize how tantalizingly close they are to overturning Roe v Wade, they will turn out in droves. 2 more justices will most likely retire under the next President. The choice for the Christian Right is between having justices that will throw this back to the states (where it belongs) and justices that will kill this issue for another 30 years.
With the Christian Right turning out for Obama and RNC fundraising equalizing the money situation, voters will turn to other issues and realize how far out of step Obama is with the rest of the country. Moderates will then gravitate toward McCain. This should give Republicans at leat one thing to look forward to, in what may turn out to be a brutal cycle.
What did Bloomberg say about McCain?
by George Dienhart
I think they might be right on Lieberman. There needs to be an (R) after his name though, and soon. It’s an interesting choice that strikes at Obama’s weakness with the white middle class. Here’s what Bloomberg said…
McCain's list would include former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, even with their frosty personal relations during the presidential campaign; Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty -- if he can avoid silly moments like talking on a radio show about his lack of a sex life with his wife -- and Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman. Lieberman, who ran as the Democratic vice presidential nominee in 2000, is now an Independent and a McCain supporter. If McCain thinks the social right of the Republican Party won't bolt even though Lieberman has been pro-choice on abortion and pro-gay rights, a good hunch is this is his personal preference.
Bloomberg agrees with Red Meat...
by George Dienhart
On Obama’s choice for VP. Remember- you read about Jim Webb here, first. Here’s what Bloomberg has to say…
For Obama, here's a good bet for a shortlist: former Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sam Nunn, a favorite of the party's conservative wing; current Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joe Biden; Reagan's former Navy secretary and now Virginia Democratic Senator Jim Webb; and New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.
This summer when people say that Bloomberg called it- tell them we called it first…
Friday, May 16, 2008
As if they don't have enough money...
by George Dienhart
Our “allies” in
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - Saudi Arabia’s leaders made clear Friday they see no reason to increase oil production until customers demand it, apparently rebuffing President Bush amid soaring U.S. gasoline prices.It was Bush’s second personal appeal this year to King Abdullah, head of the monarchy that rules this desert kingdom that is a longtime prime U.S. ally and home to the world’s largest oil reserves. But Saudi officials stuck to their position that they will only pump more oil into the system when asked to by buyers, something they say is not happening now, the president’s national security adviser told reporters. “Saudi Arabia does not have customers that are making requests for oil that they are not able to satisfy,” Stephen Hadley said on a day when oil prices topped $127 a barrel, continuing to set records. “What the Saudis wanted to tell us was we’re doing everything we can do ... to meet this problem, but it’s a complicated problem.”
No, what the Saudi’s want to tell is “We want more money” and “Yes, we forgot that little thing back in 90-91 where you came over here and saved us from being over run by
With friends like these…
Energy independence means doing away with these 2-bit dictators who seem to be more willing to be helped than to help. It means we need to be drilling in the Gulf and in ANWR. It means we need to start building John McCain’s 20 nuclear power plants immediately- and we also need the refineries he has promised. The change we need does not come with Obama’s smiles and platitudes- it comes in our energy policy, and McCain is the only one to announce one. If only he would drill in ANWR.
Coke bust in PTC
by George Dienhart
I have two messages to convey on this one- thanks to the PTC police for catching this guy. The second is what the hell is going on here?
In the last year PTC has suffered numerous school lockdowns, and drug related arrests. There was even a potential shooting at
Text of Atlanta Christian College press release
by George Dienhart
ACC has narrowed down it’s list of new locations to 2- both in South Metro Atlanta:
“We are honored by the number of cities and communities throughout
“We want to choose the city that will not only be a great new location for
Collins told the Peachtree City Council at a May 15 meeting that, while he is continuing to receive regular inquiries from communities interested in hosting the campus,
ACC offers degree programs in seven areas of study, ranging from biblical studies to business, and currently enrolls approximately 400 students. The new Access program offers associate and bachelor’s degrees for adult learners, as well as online courses.
News and information about
This weeks meet the press.
By George Dienhart
Be sure to catch this week’s meet the press- it’s staring Obama’s future running mate, Jim Webb.
From NBC-"Exclusive! Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) joins us to talk about Democratic politics, the state of the
Bush Wedding
by George Dienhart
I haven’t covered anything on Jenna Bush’s wedding, but I found the menu interesting:
Fried oysters on tostadas
pork flautas
mango fresco
shrimp
Grilled
potatoes with poblano pepper gratiné
spinach sautéed with pine nuts.
Bride's Cake: Tres leches
Groom's Cake: Chocolate
Churros with chocolate
chips with chili con queso
breakfast burritos
I’ve always been a sucker for a good breakfast burrito.
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