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Wednesday, May 21, 2008

Democrat Delegate rundown

by George Dienhart
Yesterday I did a quick delegate breakdown for the Democrats. Today, we will dive into the numbers a little deeper, including yesterday’s results. I’ll also cover why this is a grim day not only for Hillary, but also for Obama. First, yesterdays results.

If Hillary is going to continue to spin the popular vote and late season surge as reasons she is the best choice, she should be announcing herself as the overall victor of yesterdays primaries. When both states are combined, she won overwhelmingly- 13 percentage points, and 155 thousand votes. That’s a big turnout for Hillary, but it was only one day. A day that is extremely late in the primary process. Here’s a review of the overall delegate count.

Here, we notice a slight shift in the results, dependant on how you count. Under the DNC’s present rules, Obama is ahead in every category, though not decisively. The magic (or depending on who you ask, witchcraft) occurs when you include the presently disenfranchised Florida and Michigan voters, there is slight gain for Hillary. When you increase the number of delegates needed to clinch to the 2209 delegates that the Clinton Campaign frequently cites, Hillary is nearly back in the hunt. Notice that Obama’s delegate lead drops from 183 to 68 under the reformulation. How is this significant?

There are three states/territories left. Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota. All three are projected to go to Hillary. I project that Hillary gets 35 out of 55 in Puerto Rico. She’ll get 11 out of 16 in Montana and 10 out of 15 in South Dakota. That gives 2029 to Obama’s 2071. Both candidates are still short of the necessary delegates whether you count Florida and Michigan or not. That leaves the decision in the 167 super delegates that remain uncommitted. This nomination now depends on who cuts them a better deal…