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Tuesday, May 13, 2008

If the election were held today, who would win?

By George Dienhart

I found great little utility over at 270towin.com. As you may have guessed, it’s a tool to predict possible paths to victory in the electoral vote this number. There is polling data and historical data for each state. Nifty tools on the web don’t normally make the cut on what I want to write about. The news is in the results. It’s a McCain victory:

As you can see, there is a whole lot of red on that map. The totals are 305 McCain to 233 Obama. That’s a pretty good cushion for McCain. And this is before the 527’s get a hold of Obama and his myriad of personal problems.

There is no trickery here- the McCain states are the states in which he is ahead, and which traditionally go Republican. My analysis is NOT the same as just clicking the websites “McCain vs. Obama” link. That link leaves states such as Texas in a “tossup” category. Texas is clearly McCain territory according to polling and past history. In my simulation McCain states went to McCain and Obama States went to Obama. With McCain’s path to victory clear, why is big media still acting as though the election is a done deal, anointing Obama as president? Can anyone say liberal bias?

DNC self-flagellation to continue

by George Dienhart

Why, oh why, do Democrats do this to themselves? It was supposed to be their year. As a staunch Republican, I still have to overcome laughter every time I turn my attention to the race for the Democratic Party Presidential nomination. Certainly there are more important stories, as the nomination is all but wrapped up, but there are none more entertaining. Today’s story in the today’s New York Post claims that 64% of all Democrats want Hillary Clinton to stay in the race. To me this is mind-boggling.

In recent history, Democrats win when the economy is an issue. True the recent history I speak of is Bill Clinton, but the DNC has convinced Big Media that there is a recession, and many people have fallen for the marketing blitz. This would normally mean that the opposition party (as far as the White House is concerned) is poised to run away with the election. This is clearly not the case with McCain running statistically (within the margin of error) even or ahead of Obama in almost every case. In most of these same polls Clinton leads McCain. As an angry, bald, white guy once said, It’s the economy, stupid (even if it’s not). Why don’t voters trust Obama with the economy?

Most likely, it is a combination of things. For starters, he has no experience, whatsoever, in running a large organization. Budget work is hard work and requires energy and ideas, not catchphrases and positive “buzz”.

Secondly- Taxes. I know it is hard for Democrats to realize, but we already pay too much. Tax cuts stimulate the economy. Lower taxes under President bust have lead to record revenues. Obama’s tax hike would be historic- not just due to its massive size, but also because of the massive damage that would be done to the economy. The tax increase, in conjunction with an increase in spending so large that it defies logical explanation, will almost certainly throw us into a four year recession.

There is also an issue of trust. Repeatedly, Obama shows us that he has poor judgment. This is not the time for the United States to select a leader with judgment problems..

When you roll this all up- it spells out why most Democrats want Hillary to keep fighting the good fight. As a Republican, I can only sit back and enjoy the ride.

Quote(s) of the day

by George Dienhart

Pennsylvania Avenue: Profiles in Backroom Power by John Harwood has these two Gems. These quotes perfectly illustrate the difference between liberals and conservatives.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi-  "the road to Damascus is a road to peace"

Gordon Johndroe, “the road to Damascus is littered with victims of terrorism."

This also illustrates the difference between winning the war and losing it, and the difference between keeping America safe and facing another 9/11 type of calamity.

McCain Snappy answers to stupid questions

by George Dienhart

Two email releases from Team McCain yesterday:

"Obama Is The High Tax Candidate, Having Proposed More New Tax Increases"

"Obama Voted Against The FY 2007 Iraq Emergency Spending Bill That Provided Nearly $1.8 Billion For Veterans Medical Care."

Two important points, indeed…