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Tuesday, May 13, 2008

If the election were held today, who would win?

By George Dienhart

I found great little utility over at 270towin.com. As you may have guessed, it’s a tool to predict possible paths to victory in the electoral vote this number. There is polling data and historical data for each state. Nifty tools on the web don’t normally make the cut on what I want to write about. The news is in the results. It’s a McCain victory:

As you can see, there is a whole lot of red on that map. The totals are 305 McCain to 233 Obama. That’s a pretty good cushion for McCain. And this is before the 527’s get a hold of Obama and his myriad of personal problems.

There is no trickery here- the McCain states are the states in which he is ahead, and which traditionally go Republican. My analysis is NOT the same as just clicking the websites “McCain vs. Obama” link. That link leaves states such as Texas in a “tossup” category. Texas is clearly McCain territory according to polling and past history. In my simulation McCain states went to McCain and Obama States went to Obama. With McCain’s path to victory clear, why is big media still acting as though the election is a done deal, anointing Obama as president? Can anyone say liberal bias?