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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Chickens coming home to roost for the Democrats

by George Dienhart

I imagine things may be a little tense in the Obama campaign headquarters right about now. He is now tantalizingly close to a nomination that is his to lose. Problem is, he just may lose it yet. The delegate count stands at Obama 1714, Clinton 1589. First one to 2025 wins. There are about 727 delegates still up for grab- enough to put either over the top, or neither. There are 380 delegates yet to be chosen via the primary process. The remaining 347 are super delegates who are not bound to any vote. Here is a little breakdown of what I see happening:

I allocated the remaining delegates by analyzing existing trends in polling, the states election history and where I think the momentum will be. I also took into account fundraising, though I did not weigh it as heavily as I would have in the past. I chose to de-emphasize funding (to a degree) due to the McCain and Clinton comebacks.

As you can see, this is a nightmare scenario for the Democrats- no clear winner has emerged after the last primary. The Super Delegates- will choose the Democratic standard-bearer and that is super bad news for Democrats. If they vote for Clinton, they set their party back 20 years and McCain wins. If they vote for Obama, they vote against the last 16 years of Clinton rule, and McCain wins. As you can see, believe the damage is already done.

A Clinton candidacy delivers more of the same Clinton act- and it is an act that has left the voters both cold and tired. This is a scenario that consists of more Bill shenanigans, more Hillary temper-tantrums, and more losses in a war on terror that will be fought by the police, not our military. The public wants no part of this. While the general public has had enough, Clinton does have enough hangers on to continue to fund her in a guerilla campaign that cut Obama top the bone.

Nominating Obama means hearing more of Rev. Wright and Bill Ayers. More damnation and terrorism. More Freudian slips over what the liberal elitist Obama really thinks about the majority of the country. In short, an Obama Nomination sets back the Democratic Party for the same 10 years. On the funding front, Obama has enough cash to wield a club that will hammer away at Clinton- bringing up numerous scandals and flips.

No matter which Democrat is elected, Republicans win. The 10 years that this will cost the Democrats will cost them dearly- three presidential elections, and nominations for most of the non-newly appointed Supreme Court seats. We have heard of previous “conservative revolutions”- this one will make the others pale by comparison. We will not win back congress this time, but we will in the next two cycles. Either Democratic candidate will disaffect a huge swath of their base.

While as a Republican, I feel this is good for the country, it would have been hard to imagine only a few months ago. Obama was doing well- and Hillary was the Democratic Party’s past. Four months ago- a Hillary nomination was going a foregone conclusion. Even though this election will most likely result in another white, male president, it has been historic. Historically, no political party has ever damaged itself so badly, in what should have been an easy election. With the left-wing manufactured recession and an unpopular president, conventional wisdom tells us we should have a Democrat elected this cycle. History books will tell us otherwise- leaving Democrats to cling bitterly to memories of what might have been.